Trump’s policies have delivered some of the promised targets and institutional rollbacks, but the author argues they have not improved supporters’ lives as higher costs and economic disruption increasingly hit the voters who backed him.

Farmers are squeezed by higher fuel and other costs, weaker revenue and tariffs that have narrowed international markets; Kansas farmer Larry Preisser said his family’s costs rose by $US737,375 as revenue fell by $US325,000, forcing them to sell long-held family land.

The economic fallout extends beyond farms: immigration raids have made agricultural workers afraid to report for work, slowing processing and shipments, while communities reliant on immigrant labor lose tax revenue and cash flow that support schools and local businesses.

The author argues that policies targeting immigrants, imposing tariffs, confronting allies and dismantling public institutions also hurt people who rely on immigrant labor, foreign customers, schools and healthcare.

That strain is beginning to affect political choices in traditionally Republican areas: Preisser plans to vote for a Democrat for the first time, while his son is undecided about voting.

Pew Research Centre data cited in the article show the share of Republicans who say Trump is responsible for their economic pain doubled over the year, reaching 35 per cent in October.

South Carolina, long a reliable Republican state, is now competitive, reflecting a broader shift in the 2026 midterm map; Trump held 28 rallies in the preceding month, but only one was in a state he lost in 2024.

The midterms will test whether voters continue to support Trump’s political project despite bearing its costs, with races in South Carolina’s First Congressional District and Virginia’s First and Second districts identified as early indicators.