CNN’s final pre-midterm ranking highlights 11 Senate seats most likely to change party control, but it is a snapshot, not a prediction; Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats while holding all their own to win the majority.

Voter frustration over the economy, the Iran war and corruption has helped Democrats expand the battleground map, while President Donald Trump’s approval rating is reported at 34%; Republicans nonetheless outspent Democrats across the 11 races in the final month, $560 million to $521 million.

North Carolina is ranked the likeliest Democratic pickup, with former governor Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 14 points in a final High Point University/YouGov poll; Democrats also outspent Republicans on advertising in the final two weeks, $10.4 million to $2.5 million.

Ohio is another major opportunity for Democrats, as former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted by five points in CNN’s polling average, despite Republicans spending about $141 million on October ads compared with Democrats’ $102 million; Democratic attacks focused on data centers, the Epstein files and an energy scandal.

Kansas has moved higher on the list, with Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead of Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44% in a NYT/Siena poll, though another survey found no clear leader; concerns over costs, tariffs and reports about former Marshall patients’ unpaid bills, along with Democrats’ October ad-spending edge, have put pressure on Marshall.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins by four points in CNN’s polling average as Collins seeks a sixth term; polling suggests voters’ views of Collins are driving many choices, amid sharp attacks from both campaigns.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 45% in CNN’s polling average, despite a late endorsement of Rogers by Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens after a bitter primary; the contest could hinge on views of costs, Trump’s trade policies and healthcare.

Democrat Chris Pappas leads former Sen. John Sununu by 12 points in a University of New Hampshire poll, while Republicans hope a strong showing by Gov. Kelly Ayotte will help Sununu; negative views of Trump could also pose a liability for him.

Iowa remains competitive, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson nearly even in CNN’s polling average, despite Trump’s 13-point win in the state in 2024; higher fuel and farm-input costs, Democratic October ad spending and a potentially strong showing by gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand could benefit Turek.

South Carolina entered the ranking after a NYT/Siena poll found a tie between appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews; Graham has faced criticism over campaign missteps and weak support from some Republicans, while Andrews has raised substantially more, though Trump’s 18-point 2024 win favors Graham on fundamentals.

Georgia appears increasingly unlikely to flip, with Sen. Jon Ossoff leading Republican Mike Collins throughout the contest and substantially outraising and outspending him; Nebraska, Mississippi and Minnesota are not considered serious battlegrounds, so a flip in any would be a major surprise.

Texas saw 7.7 million early ballots, with high turnout in Democratic counties and Latino voters representing a larger share of early voting than in the prior election; Sen. Ted Cruz warned Republicans could lose every statewide race, though Trump’s double-digit 2024 win and expected strong Republican Election Day turnout remain factors.