Donald Trump announced at a rally in Lubbock, Texas, that his administration plans to roll back Biden-era methane regulations for oil and gas operators, arguing the changes would lower costs and support more domestic production. The proposal is not yet in effect and must complete the regulatory process.

The EPA, led by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, is preparing changes to the 2024 oil and natural gas rules, which the agency says raise concerns about affordability and burdens on production, particularly at marginal wells.

The proposed rollback would target several safeguards: it would end the Super Emitter Program, ease requirements for low-producing wells, and relax limits on routine flaring of associated gas. It would also rescind certified third-party monitoring for major methane leaks and revise requirements for covers, closed vent systems and control devices.

A major focus is marginal wells producing no more than 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day. They account for roughly 78% to 80% of U.S. wells but only about 6% to 7% of production, while reports attribute nearly half of industry methane emissions to these wells and related infrastructure.

The EPA estimates the changes could save the industry $45 billion from 2027 to 2050 and enable production of an additional 210 million barrels of oil and 1.41 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The Independent Petroleum Association of America supports the proposal, saying existing compliance costs could threaten small producers and marginal wells.

The Biden-era standards, finalized in 2024, required operators to find and repair leaks, limit venting and routine flaring, use zero-emission equipment and rely on third-party monitoring to identify major methane releases. The EPA estimated those standards would prevent 58 million tons of methane emissions through 2038, along with substantial emissions of other pollutants.

The stakes are significant because methane has more than 80 times carbon dioxide’s warming power over a 20-year period, despite remaining in the atmosphere for a shorter time. Oil and gas operations are a major source of methane emissions.

Industry representatives, including groups representing smaller producers, generally welcome greater flexibility and lower compliance costs. Independent operators argue that monitoring, equipment replacement and emissions controls can be especially burdensome for ageing, low-output wells.

Environmental and health groups warn that weaker monitoring and controls could increase pollution and risks for communities near oil and gas sites. Sierra Club representatives urged enforceable protections, while Environmental Defense Fund President Fred Krupp said the EPA should address methane waste rather than ease restrictions; advocates also point to potential legal challenges.

The proposal comes as U.S. oil and gas output is already at record levels, and additional production could put downward pressure on prices. Global oil and refined-product prices have also risen amid disruptions linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

The proposal’s final effects will depend on the EPA’s economic analysis, public comments and eventual compliance requirements. Investors and operators will also have to weigh possible lawsuits, state rules, existing investments and ongoing demand from customers and international markets for emissions reductions.

The changes could also affect global gas competition, but African exporters seeking European buyers will still need to meet EU environmental requirements. Their prospects will depend on how much U.S. gas reaches the market, as well as global prices and shipping costs.