NBC News Decision Desk rates Senate races by likelihood of partisan control using categories like Solid, Likely, Lean, and Toss Up, and highlights specific states that are most competitive.

The latest polling snapshot shows President Trump at 38% approval and 61% disapproval, while national congressional control polls tilt 52% to 43% in Democrats' favor.

There are 35 Senate seats up for election on November 3, with Democrats needing a net gain of four to achieve a majority, including efforts to win in several Trump-won states and protect incumbents in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire.

NBC News and the Associated Press collect vote data across all states on Election Day, validate results, and project outcomes only when results are certain.

NBC News outlines the 2026 midterm landscape, emphasizing Democrats’ goal to flip Congress despite competing in many Trump-leaning districts and states.

In the House, all 435 seats are up for election, with Democrats needing a net gain of three seats to reclaim the majority, using the same Solid-Likely-Lean-Toss Up framework to rate races.

NBC News’s race-rating methodology includes factors such as historical results, polling, registration data, early voting, advertising data, and candidate assessments.