Experts anticipate new tools will reach financial lifelines and so‑called “facilitation nodes” that enable Iranian oil transactions, potentially involving hubs like Hong Kong and banks tied to sanctioned oil settlements.

There is debate about whether intensified economic pressure alone can coerce Iran, given its leadership’s resilience and endurance strategy, with some arguing for more targeted measures against decision-makers rather than broad harm to the general population.

China’s central role as a major buyer of Iranian oil makes it a pivotal factor, though its broader ties to the US and Western markets may limit its willingness to fully back Tehran’s interests.

Possible measures include targeting Chinese banks, using yuan-denominated payments, alternative payment systems, and strengthening the trade and logistics chain—shipping, insurance, refining, and intermediaries—alongside port blockades.

Sanctioning Chinese banks would be a major escalation with broad collateral risks to the global financial system, according to sanctions experts.

The timeline for next steps remains uncertain, as officials hint at further actions and the global economy could shape the effectiveness of any measures, underscoring the need to assess impact on Tehran’s calculus over time.

The US administration signals an unprecedented phase of economic pressure on Iran, potentially targeting financial networks and institutions beyond traditional sanctions.

Experts urge a multipronged strategy that targets banks, shipping, maritime insurance, and payment infrastructure rather than relying on a single new tool.

Iranian oil trade increasingly uses non-Western payment mechanisms—yuan, CIPS, SPFS—which could undermine dollar-centric leverage and reduce the dollar’s dominance in energy transactions.