A Tufts Center study estimates statewide rent control in Massachusetts could slash local property values by as much as $300 billion over ten years, with immediate residential tax-base declines of 6% to 9% and larger losses in mid-sized urban centers and Gateway Cities.

A separate Tufts University analysis, funded by the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, projects a 14% drop in property values over ten years under a Massachusetts rent-control ballot measure, equating to about $300 billion in homeowner losses.

If lawmakers don’t act, the ballot question requires sufficient signatures by May to appear on the November ballot; otherwise, an additional 12,429 signatures would be needed by July 1.

Governor Maura Healey opposes statewide rent control, while supporters argue the policy would address urgent housing affordability concerns.

Legislative committees are examining 11 proposed ballot questions, with a hearing planned to evaluate the rent-control measure and its implications.

The policy would cap annual rent increases at 5% plus inflation, with exemptions for owner-occupied buildings with four units or fewer and a 10-year exemption for new buildings.

An alternative framing of the policy sets a cap at 5% or the Consumer Price Index increase, with the same exemptions for small owner-occupied buildings and a decade-long exemption for new construction.

New Bedford Mayor Jon Mitchell and other officials warn the measure could deter housing production and worsen the housing crisis, potentially forcing service cuts or higher taxes.

In the short term, landlords would see reduced revenue from rent caps, and over the long term, property improvements may be limited if higher rents cannot reflect upgrades.

A University of New Hampshire poll shows majority public support or leaning toward support for rent control in Massachusetts.

The article frames a broad debate on whether rent control stabilizes rents or destabilizes local governments and housing supply, using the Tufts projections to illustrate potential municipal and economic impacts.

The Tufts study references experiences in St. Paul and Cambridge to characterize the measure as among the strictest broad-based rent-control regimes in the country.