Global Warming Accelerates, Threatening Paris Agreement's 1.5°C Limit by 2030, Study Warns
March 17, 2026
A new study in Geophysical Research Letters finds global warming appears to be accelerating, with warming averaging about 0.35°C per decade over the last decade after accounting for natural factors like El Niño, volcanic activity, and solar variability, higher than the previously cited 0.2°C per decade.
If this 2015–present trend continues, the world could breach the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit before 2030, though outcomes hinge on rapid, sustained reductions in CO2 emissions.
The adjusted data show a clear acceleration, with over 98% certainty, consistent across datasets, with the warming signal becoming visible around 2013–2014.
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Production credits note the presenter and producers, and point listeners to related BBC Inside Science content and Open University resources.
Policymakers are urged to turn scientific inputs into robust mitigation and adaptation strategies, leveraging health, agriculture, and energy resilience plans to address accelerating climate risks.
Laura Wilcox of the University of Reading explains the findings and discusses potential implications for climate projections and policy.
Related climate-change coverage is available on CBS San Francisco’s climate-change topic page.
A potential collapse or severe weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could trigger drought in the Southern Hemisphere and major sea-level rise on the U.S. East Coast, among other tipping points.
Cloud feedbacks and low-cloud dynamics are major uncertainties that could either amplify or dampen future warming depending on their response to continued warming.
The episode includes insights from Thore Graepel of Google DeepMind discussing why AlphaGo’s milestone is a pivotal moment in AI history.
The analysis points to drivers like aerosols but does not pin down a single cause; reduced cooling from declining air pollution may have unmasked warming.
Summary based on 23 sources
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Sources

The Guardian • Mar 6, 2026
Humanity heating planet faster than ever before, study finds
Nature • Mar 6, 2026
The world is getting hotter faster — its pace nearly doubled in the past decade